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Forecast Models

They are divided into two sections, first the models for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin and second for the United States Continent, I hope you find this informational



TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL LINKS

These links are used for Forecasting Tropical Cyclones, and they include, Satellite Derived Winds (Quickscat), NHC/TPC Models, Navy Forecast Model (NOGAPS), and the Wyoming.Edu MRF being they have a forecast loop for Puerto Rico and the Caribbean!

200 hecto Pascals Velocity Potential Anomalies Animation
Animation of daily IR and 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies (base period 1971-2000). Velocity potential anomalies are proportional to divergence with green (brown) contours corresponding to regions in which convection tends to be enhanced (suppressed).

_GFS_/_CMC_/_NOGAPS_/_GFDL_/_HWRF_
This is the Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields Page, This site presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic Hurricane Basins.

TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES
This site offers the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Forecast Models, Index of Tropical Forecast models incude,BAM, BAMM, LBAR, SHIP, GDFL look for date issuded, and times.

Hurricane Forecast Models from SFWMD
Sources of Hurricane Models Plotted by SFWMD include, XTRP, TVCN, NHC, BAMD, BAMM, BAMS, GFDL, UKM, NGPS, AVNO, AEMN, HWRF, CMC, LGEM, CLP5.
More Information of these models.

QuickSCAT
This site offers the "Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer" Derived from satellite of Ocean Surface Winds at 10 meters in height.

FNMOC NWP Weather Maps
This site offers Tropical Forecast and CONUS Forecast Models GFS, COAMPS, and the NOGAPS (NGP) from the U.S. Navy.

Cyclone Phase Evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability, from Florida State University (FSU).

GOES-East Wind Shear Analysis
Wind Shear forecasts can tell us how strong a tropical cyclone can get (lack of shear) or what is limiting strengthening (shear aloft). Tropical cyclones require low values of vertical wind shear so that their warm core can remain stacked above their surface circulation center, and further development as a tropical cyclone can continue. Strongly sheared tropical cyclones tend to either level in intensity or dissipate due to the breakdown of their internal heat engine.

Western North Atlantic Layer Mean Wind Analyses
This product has applications as a tool for approximating the current and short-term environmental steering flow for tropical cyclones of varying intensities in the Atlantic basin. By selecting the intensity range for a TC of interest, plots of the best-correlated layer-mean environmental steering flow can be displayed.


Continental United States (CONUS) Forecast Models Links
Numerous Model Links For U.S.Continent and Surrounding Waters,Which Include,The Gulf of Mexico,Wesetern Atlantic,Eastern Pacific,and N.W.Carribean Islands.

GFS was known as the AVN
The AVN model was developed primarily to aid in forecasting for aviation. The AVN gives short range forecasts like the NGM and ETA models do, but it also forecasts well into the medium range with forecasts every 6 hours out to 72 hours into the future. The resolution of the AVN model is about 100 km, which is not as good as the NGM or ETA models, but it still provides valuable insight into the future state of the atmosphere. The AVN also tends to perform better than the other models in certain weather situations, such as a strong low pressure area near the East Coast of the USA. The AVN also has its own set of statistical equations that use the AVN model output. The output from the AVN statistical equations is known as AVN MOS. The model is run twice a day. The AVN and MRF have been combined to create the GFS Forecast Ensemble. The GFS can be found to be a medium range forecast model out to 280 hours.

NCEP W Atlantic GFS
Wyoming.Edu GFS
FNMOC GFS
Unisys AVN
NCEP AVN Plots

NGM/Nested Grid Model
The NGM is a short range model that forecasts variables such as temperature at various levels of the atmosphere, amount of precipitation, position of upper level toughs and ridges, and the position of surface high and low pressure areas. In the nested grid model and others like it, the atmosphere is divided into squares, or a grid, for various levels of the atmosphere. Grids with smaller squares are "nested" inside larger ones for areas forecasters are particularly interested in, such as North America. The smaller the grids, the more calculations that have to be made and the bigger the computer needed. The resolution of the NGM is about 80 kilometers. The NGM produces forecasts every 6 hours from 0 hours to 48 hours into the future. It is run twice a day.

Wyoming.Edu NGM/Loop
NCEP NGM Plots/Maps
Unisys NGM

ETA now known as the NAM (North American Mesoscale) Model
The ETA model is a 48 hour Forecast Model and is run every 6 hours in 3 hour intervals. The ETA model is a newer model, which is very similar to the NGM model and forecasts the same atmospheric variables. Two versions of the ETA are in use; one with a resolution of 48 km, and the other 29 km. The grid box is much smaller than in the NGM. This allows the ETA to give a more detailed forecast over the USA. The ETA model was named after the ETA coordinate system, which is a mathematical coordinate system that takes into account topographical features such as mountains. As a result of using this coordinate system and the higher resolution, the ETA model has a much more accurate picture of the terrain across the USA. MOS equations have also been developed for the ETA model output. The output from these equations is known as ETA MOS.

Wyoming.Edu ETA/Loop
NCEP ETA Plots/Maps
Unisys ETA

RUC Model
The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) is an operational atmospheric prediction system comprising primarily of a numerical forecast model and an analysis system to initialize that model. MAPS is the research counterpart to the RUC. The RUC has been developed to serve users needing short-range weather forecasts, including those in the US aviation community.

 

Wyoming.Edu RUC/Loop
NCEP RUC Plots/Maps
Unisys RUC


MRF Model
The Medium Range Forecast model or MRF is a 288 hour Forecast Model and is run once a day at 00Zulu and 1200z. With the MRF and AVN combined to create the GFS, the output of this model can vary depending on the operational format. The MRF is run from observed data that is input to the model run, and goes out 10 days.

Wyoming.Edu MRF/Loop
NCEP MRF Plots/Maps
Unisys MRF


Workstation WRF
The WRF Workstation that is run on this website is courtesy of FSU Meteorology Program. During the hurricane season this is switched to the tropical configuration.


15 km FSU United States WRF-ARW Simulations

 

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